The USA Hockey roster deadline is not until February which means that new players can be added or dropped or traded until the last run for playoffs. A quick analysis of Pointstreak (stats website) transactions of various leagues over the past four years clearly shows instability for players who go through the rites of passage of junior hockey on the way to college hockey. Obviously injuries happen in hockey and some change is due to young prospects who get a chance to train/play short term with the team split/season. Some players are not a good fit within a particular organization and its in everyone's best interest to go to a different team. The Pointstreak report is not a complete report but is a good measuring stick for overall trends and it is readily accessible online for most leagues. Other information can be found on league stat websites.
USHL Tier I
Over the past four years ('05-'06,'07,'08) in the USHL there have been 13 teams with 23 roster spots for a total of 299 players officially included on a USA Hockey team roster. Over these four years, there were 89 lateral trades (average 22 players/year or 7%). The highest year was 29 players (10%) in '07. In that same four years, 52 players were traded as drop downs to a lower level team at some point during the season (Average 13 players/year equals just over 4%). The highest year was 2007 when 21 players (7%) were dropped down. But most telling is that two hundred and seven players have been released completely without a team to go to (approximately 51 players/year or 17% of all players in the USHL) The highest number of players dropped was in 2006 when 73 players were released (24%) Summary: Over the past four years, an average of 28% of players who were on a USHL October roster were not around on the final February roster. There have been years that are significantly higher amount of player movement than this 28% average including 2007(31.7%) and 2006 (34.7%). SUMMARY: Roughly one in four USHL players will start somewhere in the league and either be traded laterally, be dropped to another league or retire. 2008 was significantly lower than past years and we hope that this is going to be a new trend rather than a fluke statistic.
NAHL (Tier II)
Records of pointstreak transactions for the past four years ('05-'06,'07,'08) are also available for review online. There are 18 teams x 25 roster spots = 450 players in the league. Over these four years there were 385 lateral "within the league" trades for an average of 21%. Traditionally at least eleven percent of NAHL players end the year with a different team in the league. 2007 was the highest year with 207 pointstreak recorded lateral trades equal to 46%! (NEARLY HALF OF ALL NAHL PLAYERS!!) There were also 51 "drop down trades" to a designated Tier III A team midseason ( average 12 players/year or 3%). Combined, an average of 108 NAHL players per year will end with a different team (24%).
This mirrors the USHL rate. What is not reported are the players who are completely released from the NAHL which would drive the 24% rate much higher.
A limited number of players moved between the NAHL to USHL but this usually happens between seasons when players are free-agents rather than during the season which would cost teams money for such a trade. Releases are not tracked on pointstreak for the NAHL, however comparing October rosters to those in February after the roster-freeze date highlights the fact that plenty of young men are no longer in this league or anywhere anywhere within the USAH system.
Several junior teams keep more than the allowed number of players around from August to January. Players often don't think about where they fit into the official USA Hockey roster because they are part of the team as they train and get into games periodically. Coaches rotate players in and out of game roster spots by executing add/drop forms with USAH. Some players who just figured they were fourth line are not aware of the trade deadline and roster freeze issue so their release in February is completely unexpected. As Tier I teams shave down the number to the actual allowed on a roster a natural trickle down happens. Tier II teams scrambles for these players and bumps the bottom off their roster. If there is a Tier III team with a roster spot open, they are faced with the decision of whether or not to accept the dropdowns or stick with the team they've had all year. Although this process naturally happens all season, the flux is most apparent in February when final rosters are due. And there is basically four days between the Tier I drop to when Tier III teams are frozen. If a player isn't directly traded to a lower team, in four days it is pretty unlikely that they will find and connect with a team that will offer them a roster spot. So they are done in February. Tier I or II to nothing. Likewise, Tier III teams will gladly accept these dropdowns if available which means that they have players who will not have a place to play in February.
Just for comparison of another level, the MNJHL (Tier III A) has 9 teams x 25 = 225 players. In 2008, eight trades were made within the league and 23 league-to-league trades happened (including 9 players coming/going from NAHL teams). Eighteen percent ended with another team. The number of trade/drops varies greatly by team and league.
Always check out a team's stat pages and don't be afraid to ask "why the turnover?" and where the October guys went. Did they move up? Drop off the earth? Who initiated the movement - the player or the team? Was it related to discipline? Injury? Just a better fit for all?
Even with the competitiveness and the travel and trades and uncertainty, , Junior Hockey is STILL a great stepping stone in the life of a young man and the best way to improve the skills of a top AAA or prep athlete. But
remember that it incorporates a balancing act of several motives: business profit making, player development, player selection for higher levels, youth development, and academic preparation. It is a weeding out process to see who is the best, who can mend after injuries, who continues to become bigger/faster/stronger/more skilled, who can keep off ice life balanced with hockey, who can afford it (some teams have team fees, housing fees, moving expenses, etc), who doesn't get scared off by hard work, who doesn't get discouraged and quit, who can actually get accepted into college. It's a fact: thriving, not just surviving in Junior Hockey usually takes intentionality and lots of hard work. Just like all levels, it is sometimes political. It is sometimes luck. It is sometimes a matter of business -- and junior hockey is a business and entertainment industry not just a youth development organization. We provide this information not to scare you off but to just open your eyes to the realities of the number game and how to navigate these waters.
